Five Key Macroeconomic Drivers Shaping Commercial Real Estate

As 2025 comes to a close, it’s a great time to reflect on the past year and look ahead to what 2026 may bring. A new presidential administration is in place, and several important policy changes have affected the economy and the commercial real estate market.

This past year is characterized by contradictions. Despite persistent inflation, the economy has demonstrated resilience. GDP growth is anticipated to land around 2 to 3 percent by the end of the year. 

While rising consumer goods prices have shaken confidence, consumer spending has remained robust. Though overall unemployment is historically low, job growth has been modest across most sectors. Businesses are generally cautious about expansion but are actively investing in efficiency improvements, such as artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Looking ahead, 2026 is likely to be marked by moderate growth and heightened volatility. The outcomes will largely depend on interest rates, trade policies, consumer resilience, and the speed at which today's contradictions converge toward either stability or a slowdown.

Here is a look at the top five stories we’re seeing make an impact on the commercial real estate sector.

1. Employment:

With the extended government shutdown, labor market reports have been delayed. Still, key indicators suggest a “slow hiring, slow firing” environment. The healthcare sector primarily drives job growth, while office-occupying jobs have experienced a modest decline.

2. Interest Rates:

The Fed cut interest rates for the third time in 2025, bringing the target rate to 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The actions by the Fed indicate a shift from a restrictive stance to a more neutral one to manage growing employment risks.

3. Tariffs:

The U.S. has established a 10 percent minimum on most imported goods. The legality of many of these tariffs will be decided by the Supreme Court in early to mid-2026. The outcome will have wide-ranging implications, including the complexity of unwinding them if the Court limits their scope.

Learn more about the status of U.S. Tariffs here. 

4. Consumer Confidence:

The main driver of U.S. economy is consumer spending. Current sentiment is subdued and near historically low levels. In response, consumers may reduce spending on non-essential items.

5. Technology Shift:

The current shift in technology, largely driven by the rapid advancement of AI and automation, is having a divergent impact on the U.S. economy. While overall productivity is increasing, this transformation has created both winners and losers. There is a growing demand for high-level digital skills, along with new roles in AI development, data science, and cybersecurity. Conversely, jobs in other sectors, such as technology, software publishing, and professional and business services, have experienced significant reductions.

As economic contradictions persist and policy decisions continue to evolve, occupiers are navigating a landscape defined by uncertainty, opportunity, and rapid change. Employment trends, changes in interest rates, trade policy shifts, consumer feelings, and faster technological use will all be important. These factors will shape decision-making in the coming year. 

Volatility is likely to remain a defining characteristic of 2026. But organizations that stay informed and agile will be best positioned to respond. Understanding these macroeconomic forces is essential to forming a clear commercial real estate outlook. One that supports operational efficiency, manages risk, and aligns real estate strategy with broader business objectives in an increasingly dynamic environment.